IMF: Vietnam needs to strengthen the sentiment dong
Forex October 12th, 2009
International Monetary Fund, Vietnam needed to assess the balance of payments and increase confidence in the dong currency to strengthen the economic growth of at least 6% this year.
Vietnam economic growth at lowest level in a decade by 5.3% last year. The country also experienced a trade deficit of U.S. $ 12.25 billion in 2009 after a surplus in the quarter I. Vietnam is also forced to devalue the dong buying surge following the U.S. dollar and gold by the public.
IMF Senior Representative in Vietnam Benedict Bingham said that growth this year largely determined by the balance of payments.
“If the government can mestabilkan macroeconomic conditions and created a more positive sentiment toward dong, I think 6% growth target could only be achieved,” he said.
The IMF last month reported the government stimulus package hit Vietnam’s balance of payments last year, threatening the country’s economic stability. “The cause of pressure on the balance of payments is a combination of increasingly wide trade deficit and the weakening sentiment on the dong, especially by Vietnamese investors,” said Bingham.
Traded at 18,474 dong per U.S. dollar at 2 pm in Hanoi, is lower than the black market exchange rate of about 19,300. The government only allows the currency to fluctuate 3% per day.
The central bank devalued the dong in November after a foreign exchange between the official and black market soared 10 times, more than 11%.
Johanna Chua, head of Asian economic research at Citigroup Inc., mengatkan skspor Vietnam should strengthen this year, among them due to the more competitive exchange rate.
Shipping to other countries rose 12% in December to U.S. $ 5.25 billion from U.S. $ 4.69 billion in November. Garment exports rose 12% to U.S. $ 820 million, while footwear products increased 22% to U.S. $ 420 million.
Bingham said export performance is relatively stable during December and imports lower than estimated, helping to improve the trade gap.
Inflation in Vietnam rose to 6.52% in December from 4.35% the previous month in line with growth of 6.9% in the quarter IV.
“The authority should look at inflation, especially if commodity prices continue to rise this year,” explained Bingham.
U.S. consumer credit fell U.S. $ 17.5 billion
Credit and Loan October 11th, 2009
Consumer Credit in the U.S. plunged a record U.S. $ 17.5 billion in November after the unemployment rate close to the highest position in 26 years and banks restrict credit access.
According to the Federal Reserve reports consumer credit decline exceeds the October projection of U.S. $ 4.2 billion. With the decline of consumer credit to U.S. $ 2.46 trillion. While the median estimate of economists fell U.S. $ 5 billion.
Consumer credit was recorded using a credit card and other types such as the purchase of motor vehicles.
Number of workers fell 7.2 million since the recession began in December 2007 erode consumer spending. Fed policy tightening credit standards and reduced credit lines holding recovery.
“Unemployment is achieving double-digit erode consumer confidence and uncertainty caused the credit card payment delays. It’s never happened before credit card decline since the recession of the 80s,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. New York.
Consumer loans decreased 10 times in a row is the longest since 1943.
The Fed said revolving credit such as credit card down the largest U.S. $ 13.7 billion during November. While non-revolving debt, including auto loans and home run, off of U.S. $ 3.8 billion. The report did not mention the credit for real estate.
Automotive sales in the U.S. rose during November to 10.92 million, from 10.45 million in October.
European shares down from the highest 15 months
Stock Report October 5th, 2009
European stocks fell from the highest 15-month rally triggered speculation has exceeded 10 months earnings prospects.
Telefonica SA to record the biggest decline in a year after Venezuela made its currency devaluation. Thales SA worst slide in 2 months.
BP Plc climbed to the highest position 19 months after Citigroup Inc. recommended buying shares of Europe’s largest oil company was in terms of market value.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1% to 258.81, covering the previous gain of 0.9%. Interest rates in the lowest position in the U.S. and Europe as well as a commitment of about U.S. $ 12 trillion from governments around the world have pushed rally 64% in the Stoxx 600 since March 9, 2009. The index traded at a position approximately 59 times the income supporting the company, or close to valulasi highest since June 2003, said weekly data collected by Bloomberg.
European stocks opened stronger on Monday morning after China’s trade data indicate increasing global economic recovery accelerated and lifted the price of metals.
Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, will become the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to record earnings in the period of 3 months to December on Monday. Intel Corp..
and JPMorgan Chase & Co. is also scheduled to release earnings this week.
A number of national indexes stumbled across nine of the 18 western European markets. UK FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX gained less than 0.1%. The French CAC 40 index slid slim.
Telefonica dived 3.2% to 18.50 euros, the deepest since January 2009, after President Hugo Chavez Bolivar devalued. Second largest phone company in Europe that scored 6.3% of sales in Venezuela in the first 9 months of 2009.
Thales, the worst performer in the Stoxx 600 on Monday, stumbled 5.2% to 33.56 euros, the worst decline since 6 November 2009. Stock downgraded to reduce from add at Natixis.
BP climbed 2.2% keposisi 635.5 pence, the highest closing since May 22, 2008. Cairn Energy Plc rose 2.3% to 370.3 pence, Renewable Energy Corp. ASA weakened 4.4% to 40.85 kroner position.
Swiss Life has rallied 5.5% to 152.7 Swiss francs, the highest increase in 2 months, Allianz SE down 1.1% to 87 euros.
Heineken NV climbed 3.3% to as low as 34 euros, Michelin & Cie., The second largest tire manufacturer in the world, rose 1.7% to as low as 58.50 euros
