Support the market momentum to strengthen the rupiah
Forex April 2nd, 2010
The analyst believes the foreign exchange market this year a lot of good momentum for the rupiah if they see the improvement in global conditions could push the rupiah strengthened to Rp9.000 range Rp8.000 per U.S. dollar.
“Today, the rupiah had strengthened to below the level of Rp9.000 per U.S. dollar. And it could move further strengthened if they see a lot of good momentum into the future. Global conditions improved while the U.S. dollar was depressed by unemployment situation in the country,” said the dealer currency in one of the state-owned banks, today.
According to him, the problem is somewhat worrying for the development of related rupiah Bank Century settlement of the case. “We do not know the direction where this case. If the ends are political and suddenly the finance minister was replaced, yes of course it will influence the market. However, so far we do not know him anywhere,” he explained.
Another factor that could push the rupiah could come from rising oil prices and other commodities in the world. Oil prices today reached U.S. $ 83 per barrel to show the potential increase in the next few weeks.
“If oil and commodity prices continue to rise, it will impact on the measures taken by the government related to fuel prices. If you ride, its effect can be the price of LPG, which pushed inflation at the end.”
In addition, the impact of the implementation of the Asean free trade-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) to the industrial sector should also be observed. According to him, actually ACFTA implementation of the government is betting on the economy. The problem, if not in full support by the government, for example by the imposition of certain tariffs, it will weaken the economy.
“The government must not rashly and domestic products will be fully supported. Government can not escape the hand,” he explained.
On the other hand, a positive signal for the rupiah, also visible from the emission of government bonds amounting to U.S. $ 4 billion this afternoon.
Analysts had estimated at least 2011 or 2012, Indonesia back into the category of investment grade as in 1996. “At that time [1996], Indonesia has a BBB rating, but lowered the monetary crisis. Next year’s rate could rise to the re-investment grade category,” he said.
