Stock Investor Challenge 5 in 2010
Stock Report May 3rd, 2010
JAKARTA – At the upcoming 2010 will be many challenges for stock investors. At least, there are five challenges that must be observed. If not able to make investors dizzy.
First, political factors, in which the coalition government was not as strong as expected. The government is also still struggling with the case of Century and the possibility of cases that hit Indonesia in the front.
As at February 2010, is expected to appear results Century Bank case. However, investors and the market must get ready to anticipate the results that came out later.
“If the results do not match, please heartburn market. If this happens, we’ll see where the officials who were victims. Or such a solution versus alligator lizard, suddenly disappeared from circulation,” said PT Bhakti Securities analyst Budi Ruseno, when exposure Outlook 2010, the MNC Tower, Jakarta, Wednesday (23/12/2009) afternoon.
Second, the existence of free markets-China Indonesia. Began in January 2010, ASEAN includes Indonesia will perform a free market with China. Where the impact will not immediately appear immediately, and predicted a new look at III/IV-2010 quarter.
“Remember, China 2008-2009 time poured massive stimulus. The result is a product of China’s abundant, excess inventory will be disposed of in various developing countries, including Indonesia,” he explained.
The effect, manufacturers increasingly uncompetitive Indonesia, crushed China products, factory closures, unemployment rises, until the worst scenario when a protracted social instability occurs.
Third, rising interest rates. We have the Fed lower interest rates apply 0-0,25 percent. As the economic recovery, inflation will increase, and the Fed will raise interest rates, could in the first or second quarter of 2010.
“We have signs already visible. U.S. dollar strengthened and commodities drop. In the long term rise in interest rates good for the U.S., but in the short term will result in capital outlow from countries outside the United States, including Indonesia,” he said.
Fourth, after the Fed raised interest rates, must Bank Indonesia (BI) will also raise interest rates to reduce interest rate spreads. Moreover, domestic inflation in 2010 is estimated much higher.
Fifth, price increases (fuel, LPG, electricity, etc.). After the delay is expected the government would raise the price in 2010. “It is estimated that in the II-III quarter of 2010, usually after Lebaran. This would trigger inflation and raise interest rates medicine,” he said.
Therefore, he predicts the prospect of JCI in 2010 was still quite good. But with pretty good potential for correction. “Unlike 2009, which increased fairly stable, JCI 2010 more volatile,” he concluded.
